By Charly SHELTON

Nature is unpredictable – that’s what everyone says. That’s the stock answer for what happened in Texas and Florida with Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The flooding, the food shortages, the power outages and more. But in a way, thanks to modern science, nature can be predictable. Both hurricanes were seen coming a week beforehand, giving residents a chance to prepare their homes and leave the area, and it was within hurricane season, when residents in hurricane country know to stock up on emergency supplies and be ready to take action if necessary.

Here in earthquake country, we don’t have the luxury of a week’s notice. The “big one” could strike at any second. Shaking – possibly violent shaking – could last for up to 90 seconds. Science has shown that California’s resident fault, the San Andreas Fault, is long overdue for a quake. A study released by the U.S. Geological Survey earlier this year examined the last 1200 years of earthquakes on the SAF, showing on average magnitude 7.0-7.9 earthquakes every 100 years. The last time the fault moved was during the Fort Tejon quake on Jan 9, 1857.

Not only is it time for another quake, it’s more than 50 years overdue. And much like Harvey and Irma, preparedness and alertness will mean the difference between major loss and mitigated loss.

To prepare for these situations, USGS has produced a scenario of how they think a large quake would play out so they can train first responders for it.

“The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario – A Story That Southern Californians Are Writing” is the scenario compiled by geologists, seismologists and social scientists to anticipate the kinds of problems LA would have if hit by a 7.8 magnitude earthquake “if no additional actions are taken for mitigation or preparedness.”

“This would be a good size earthquake, not just your everyday little tiny rumblings that we have all the time,” said Leslie Gordon, public affairs specialist with USGS. “What if there was a major earthquake in Southern California? This is what we would expect to see.”

With an epicenter at Bombay Beach in the Salton Sea, the scenario states, the shaking would reach LA 90 seconds after the earthquake begins, and the shaking would last 55 seconds. In contrast, shaking in the 1994 Northridge quake lasted seven seconds. But after the shaking stops is when the real emergency begins.

Whereas too much water is affecting Texas and Florida, LA’s problem would be not enough water. With a ground shift of nearly 44 feet, the aqueducts that import the life-giving water would be misaligned and stop flowing. The shaking would rupture local pipes transporting gas and water, and power lines would go down leaving homes without services. Highways like the 15 would also be broken and misaligned, preventing access into or out of the area. When the power lines go down, they spark fires. Fuel lines at gas stations would break and ignite, causing fiery explosions. Hospitals could still be standing but wouldn’t be able to do much for new patients due to a lack of electricity and water. Those cell towers left standing would be swamped with call traffic, preventing most residents from calling their families to see if they’re all right or calling 911. First responders would already be busy battling the looting and numerous fires around the city caused by gas, electric and chemical mishaps.

Then the first aftershock hits – 7.0 magnitude – and everyone drops to find cover and the cycle starts again. These aftershocks would get weaker each time, but continue for the next three days or so.

If that sounds terrifying, it’s because it is. The danger is real and, while it does seem bleak, preparedness is key. Just as in hurricane country, we in earthquake country need to prepare. Get together some non-perishable food, medical supplies, extra water – a minimum one gallon per day, per person or pet – medications, important documents, a good multi-tool, a tinder kit, matches, a portable radio and a flashlight with extra batteries. Residents need to make an evacuation plan and know where the fuse box and gas shut off valve are for their homes. Be prepared to last a week or longer without any services or access to additional supplies.

All this and more to get earthquake ready can be found in the USGS booklet, “Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country,” available at USGS.gov and made available on CV Weekly.com.

“Because you know there will be a large earthquake, it helps us prepare by creating the scenarios to understand all the ramifications and possibilities,” Gordon said.

  Charly Shelton