“Probably nor’east to sou’west winds varying to the southard and westard and eastard and points between; high and low barometer, sweeping round from place to place; probably areas of rain, snow, heat and drought, succeeded or preceded by earth quakes.
~ Mark Twain, American humorist, writer and lecturer, 1835-1910

Leave it to Mark Twain to come up with a witty all-inclusive weather forecast (not sure how earthquakes fit in). No matter your location on Earth, at least one – if not more – of these conditions will come into play. The high pressure is weakening that blocked rain-laden storms that drove the “nor’east winds” and kept our heat on. A low barometer reading is a welcomed sight as it indicates a chance for rain. Last year’s abundant precipitation, especially in northern California, came after five years of drought. Was it only a reprieve?

Thus far, for the 2017-18 Rainfall Season, I have measured only a scant .20 inches of rain. We have a lot of catching up to do to make it to our normal 23-24 inches. Light rain could be a blessing in disguise as the fire-ravaged hillsides stand exceedingly vulnerable to mud slides. Hopefully if, or when, the rain comes, it will fall gently. On the flip side, we need the rain as the alternative – drought ¬ is not a good one.

Memories of perpetual blue sky and months on end without rain – the five-year drought – faded quickly after last winter’s much-needed storms. But with a bone-dry December and a good chance of sunshine well into the New Year, many Californians are getting flashbacks. Reservoirs in the northern part of the state have only just recovered from those dry years. Here in Southern California, water levels have yet to return to normal.

After Christmas, we were up in the Santa Ynez area. Usually at this time grasses covering hillsides are green; but this year they were brown and dry. Nearby Lake Cachuma stands at only 38.7% capacity, according Santa Barbara County’s present Rain and Reservoir Summary. Along the coast from Ventura northward, the mountainsides were black. We saw from the Santa Barbara Marina water drops being made on the remaining hot spots left by the Thomas Fire.

A few sprinkles are forecast for today, but a much better chance for measurable rain comes Monday and Tuesday. The NWS, considering all its sources, is predicting “potentially plenty of rainfall.”

I will believe it only after I am soaking wet!

Sue Kilpatrick is a
Crescenta Valley resident and
Official Skywarn Spotter for the
National Weather Service. Reach her at suelkilpatrick@gmail.com.

  Sue Kilpatrick