A High Stakes Gamble by the President on North Korea

It may have left the front pages for the moment, but the most consequential event of President Trump’s term of office could come within the next few months: a meeting between Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un to discuss the denuclearization of North Korea.

The dramatic late night announcement that President Trump had accepted an invitation to meet Kim was momentous, as it holds the potential to forge a new path towards peace on the Korean Peninsula. But it also raises the stakes dramatically, especially with the dangers it presents to an inexperienced President and an unprepared Administration.

North Korea has been one of our most vexing and dangerous foreign policy challenges for decades. Successive administrations have struggled to organize an effective strategic response to the brutal, isolated and repressive North Korean regime as it pursued nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. The Trump Administration came into office promising to resolve the North Korean threat, but that often took the form of counterproductive and bellicose tweets by the President aimed not only at North Korea but also at our allies in South Korea. More productively, the Administration tightened sanctions on North Korea and sought greater Chinese cooperation in putting pressure on the North.

After a historic participation in the Winter Olympics, hosted in South Korea, North Korea has expressed a rare willingness to negotiate, including apparently the key issue of nuclear weapons. This is a positive step forward, but fraught with peril and we must view it with skepticism given the long history that the brutal regime in Pyongyang has of violating previous agreements.

Pyongyang will view a meeting on an equal footing with the President of the United States as an enormous victory in its own right and a validation of the power and influence that their illegal nuclear program has brought them. Given North Korea’s record of proliferation and cheating on prior agreements, any proposal will need to be subject to rigorous verification. Even if an agreement can be reached, implementing it will be challenging as there is a limited understanding of the scope of the North Korean nuclear program, making verification exceedingly complicated and difficult.

In the weeks before the summit, clear-eyed diplomacy and preparation will be vital, given the risks involved in such a high-stakes meeting this early in a negotiation. The exodus of experienced diplomats, as well as the failure to fill some of the most important jobs within the State Department, has paralyzed American diplomacy at a time it is desperately needed. In addition to the State Department, the President must also rely on the expertise within the intelligence community and throughout the government, and not simply on his own estimation of his skills as a “deal maker.”

One particular risk of starting out, not with lower level and preparatory discussions but with the principals themselves, is that if the first meeting is a failure, there may be little appetite to continue negotiations. A President who impulsively agrees to a summit may be equally inclined to impulsively conclude that negotiations are a waste of time, and there is no alternative but military action.

Finally, as we approach the summit with the Kim regime, the President is considering another action that could make a deal much more difficult, if not impossible. The President has stated his intention to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Agreement in May unless certain conditions are met. An American withdrawal from the Iran agreement while Iran is in compliance would dramatically reduce the chances of success with North Korea, since it will raise profound questions about our willingness to abide by any agreement. It might also result in an Iranian decision to restart the parts of their nuclear program they had shut down. The President would be wise to try to cope with one nuclear crisis at a time.

Given the dearth of good options and the risk of a catastrophic military conflict, all Americans should hope that a true breakthrough with North Korea is possible. The Trump Administration must work with our allies to develop a comprehensive strategy for the negotiations with North Korea that advances the potential for peace. For, as Winston Churchill famously said, it is better to jaw-jaw than to war-war.