“Sunshine, blue skies, please go away…

My eyes search the skies, desperately

for rain…Let it rain, let it rain.”

~ “I Wish it Would Rain” song by The Temptations

Is Autumn in the air? We’re still a couple of weeks away from the official date, but there are a few signs, if you look closely. The most obvious is perhaps the fewer minutes of daylight; it’s dark by 8 p.m. We know it doesn’t just happen overnight but is part of an ongoing process. But, nevertheless somehow it seems to happen abruptly. Suddenly- at a defining moment- you notice and may question  “Is it getting dark earlier?”  Doesn’t it seem in the midst of the summer, the lighter evenings will last forever.  As temperatures continue to climb well beyond the 100-degree mark, we are more than ready for a break…if only we could keep the warm summer nights.

Summer will end and we begin to wonder what autumn and winter may bring. Mostly in recent years the real question has been—will it rain and how much? It’s a serious question and the answer can’t be mere speculation. Our best information comes from the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center. On September 6 they released their much-anticipated forecast. An official “La Niña watch” was declared for (at least) the September-November time frame, and the La Niña effect is likely to persist through the winter. So, what does this mean for our weather?

La Niña can reduce the chance for a normal rain amount across much of the Southwest including California. This is not good news for a region that is plagued by an ongoing drought,  excessive heat and ongoing wildfires. A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern part of the country, according to the prediction center. No area is left untouched by climate conditions such as La Niña. But as is often the case, with climate/weather, it’s a wait and see.

The catalyst for a La Niña condition is simply surface ocean water temperature. Specifically, with La Niña, the cooling of surface ocean water along the coast of Peru. Depending on water temperature of the western vs. the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere and meteorological drivers like the Jet Stream can be altered and affect the rice harvest in Indonesia, snow depths in Colorado and drought in Southern California. During a good El Niño year, the Jet Stream drops south bringing us rain.

The forecast includes more hot weather. Good news, though… the nights are getting cooler- 60 degrees! Autumn is coming.

Sue Kilpatrick is a Crescenta Valley
resident and Official Skywarn Spotter for the
National Weather Service Reach her at suelkilpatrick@gmail.com.

  Sue Kilpatrick