“And the sun took a step back, the leaves lulled themselves to sleep and autumn was awakened.”

~ Raquel Franco, ‘Keep Me Wild’

Monday, Sept. 23 was the first day of autumn (and also the birthday of husband Doug). Summer passed with such great speed that I feel a bit cheated. Pool-time is in its final days. Nowadays, I am a fair-weather swimmer. It’s hard to believe as a vacationing teenager I thought little of spending an entire afternoon swimming in the frigid waters of Lake Tahoe. Such behavior was perhaps age-related as was the survival from cold water shock!

Before summer came to an end, temperatures dropped in the Eastern Sierra bringing its first snowfall of the season. It’s not uncommon for winter-like weather to make an early appearance at the higher elevations in California. Snow also fell over the Rockies and in areas of Utah, Arizona, Wyoming and, without surprise, Alaska.

Not much snow found in our neck of the woods but with little doubt we can expect a certain amount of rain. The question remains the same every year: “How many inches will the ‘certain amount’ contain?” The answer can never be exact as that is not Mother Nature’s way. A few clues are given, though, that may or may not help with an answer. The one most spoken of is El Niño.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced last week a weaker version of the large-scale weather phenomenon of El Niño has ended. A weak or mild El Niño condition had been present since fall 2018, allowing for one of the heaviest snow and rain seasons California had experienced in years. A few ski resorts in the Sierra didn’t close until July! And many have a projected opening for the beginning of November.

In making the announcement, NOAA noted that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean had dipped and returned to normal. That means El Niño  – which occurs when those surface temperatures are higher than average – is officially over and that the El Niño Southern Oscillation is now in a “neutral” state. NOAA predicts a 50% to 55% chance of current conditions persisting through winter. In a perfect weather world, 23-24 inches of rain should fall across our foothills.

Widespread cooling along the coast and inland defines the weather into early next week. Barely worth mentioning is the slight chance – 10 % – of light rain or drizzle through Saturday. A mild Santa Ana is expected to clear the skies and boost the temperatures come Tuesday. A few leaves are beginning to fall. Summer is over.

Sue Kilpatrick is a Crescenta Valley
resident and  Official Skywarn
Spotter for the National Weather Service. Reach her at suelkilpatrick@gmail.com.

  Sue Kilpatrick