“May the sun always shine warm on your windowpane. May a rainbow be certain to follow each rain.”

~ Irish Blessing

Summer is now a memory with an exception: its weather. It lingers on and on … like encore after encore following a long chamber music piece. With summer, it’s one more blast of heat. This week demonstrates such as temperatures reached close to 100 degrees. Cooler conditions are forthcoming, but what about rain?

Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – NOAA –have made their yearly assessment in regard to the upcoming rain season. A La Niña condition has been observed in the eastern Pacific Ocean and there is a 75% chance it will persist through the winter.

A little background. Trade winds blow warm ocean water away from the eastern Pacific – the Chilean coastline. Cold water from the depths of the ocean is pulled in to replace the normally warm water. A La Niña event is born! The force of the trade winds causes the western Pacific waters to rise 24 inches higher than its eastern side!

Slowly building over the summer, a “strengthening La Niña territory” is now occurring, claims retired JPL climatologist Bill Patzert. What does that mean for California and the Southwest?

“Typically speaking, La Niñas turn out dry for Southern California, and El Niños turn out wet. But not always,” Patzert said. “La Niñas are never a sure bet.” There are numerous documentations of above average rainfall during weak La Niñas.

Typically, La Niñas are associated with colder and precipitation-enhanced storms across the northern U.S. and warm, dry conditions in our neck-of-the-woods – the southwestern U.S. If NOAA’s La Niña forecast plays out, continued drought and wildfires threaten California.

“The dice are loaded for drought, but it’s not a sure thing,” Patzert said. “It’s still a crap shoot, but firefighters, water managers and farmers would be wise to be prepared.”

Plenty of blue skies and hot air are with us … and then a cooling trend is coming our way for the weekend and is expected to last into next week. Rest assured, as evenings become dark earlier and nighttime temperatures drift downwards into the 60s autumn arrived. Now, we’re awaiting winter with an expectation of rain.

Sue Kilpatrick is a Crescenta Valley
resident and Official Skywarn Spotter for the
National Weather Service Reach her at suelkilpatrick@gmail.com.

  Sue Kilpatrick