“It doesn’t rain at all in California. Once a month, a man drives through spraying Evian.”
~ Hugh Laurie, actor

It’s November, so where is the rain? Good question! Every year at about this time, we begin to wonder about the timing and totals for the upcoming raining season. So far, only a few sprinkles have accumulated at the bottom of the water bucket. Those buckets we speak of, as in “the rain came down in buckets,” are likely the wooden or galvanized steel types once used to draw well water. As they were about 14 inches deep, and our average rain-total is approximately 24 inches, Mother Nature needs to get back to work. Summer vacation is long over!

An impressive area of low pressure had formed over the Gulf of Alaska a week ago. Slow moving, its associated cold front weakened as it headed southward. The system comes with a prediction for rain as it moves through southwestern California. Thus far, previous systems have stalled and were sidetracked before making it into our area. According to NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) CPC (Climate Prediction Center), similar scenarios may be repeated many times in the upcoming months.

On Nov. 9, NOAA stated the following: “La Niña conditions are predicted to continue (65-75% chance) at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. During October, weak La Niña conditions emerged as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.”

If said prediction comes to fruition, Southern California can expect above- normal temperatures and below-average precipitation December through February.

“Last winter we had a similar (forecast),” JPL climatologist Bill Patzert noted. “And we had 20%-30% rainfall above normal. That’s still a possibility. At this point, don’t give up on rainfall. You don’t want to bet your 401K on this forecast.”

My new rain gauge awaits in guarded, hopeful anticipation of the first measurable drops of rain.

Periods of light rain – a gully washer of a tenth of an inch – will arrive tonight and will exit by Friday. Mild northeast gusty offshore winds and a warmup settle in for the weekend. The forecast suggests similar weather through Thanksgiving Day. While turkeys roast at 325-350 degrees, it may reach 90 degrees in some of the inland valleys, including the Crescenta Valley. We may consider feasting outdoors; as I recall the Native Americans and Pilgrims did many years ago.

Sue Kilpatrick is a
Crescenta Valley resident and
Official Skywarn Spotter for the
National Weather Service. Reach her at suelkilpatrick@gmail.com.