“It had been gradually getting overcast, and now the sky was dark and lowering …

Large drops of rain soon began to fall and, as the storm clouds came sailing onward,

others supplied the void they left behind and spread over all the sky.”

                                                                    ~ Charles Dickens, ‘Old Curiosity Shop’

And to continue where Mr. Dickens left off: The rain continued to fall throughout the day and into the evening across the Crescenta Valley foothills. By the time the storm moved out, we had accumulated three inches of rain! It began at about the same time the CV Weekly hit the driveways of homes and stoops of local establishments. In spite of the generous storm, our paper was dry. It was a very good day indeed!

Last week’s larger than expected storm left behind 3.06 inches of rain. Our season total of six inches is quite impressive. Now what? Is there more rain on track? Most importantly – what can we expect from the 2018-19 rain season?

According to NOAA’s Climate.gov, based on ocean temperatures off the coast of Peru, there is an 80% chance an El Niño will form and continue into the spring; a chance only – not a guarantee but a possibility, and a possibility of increased amounts of rain. With our ongoing drought, there’s good reason for more than the usual uncertainty to be included with a rainy forecast.

The cloudiness of the past days has moved on allowing clear skies to be today’s forecast headline. As often is the case, an area of high pressure over the Great Basin is the instigator of the current weather change. With it come Santa Ana winds and a warm-up. Each of these systems is unique; this one is weak. The winds aren’t expected to be strong. To illustrate, tomorrow’s low pressure from the north is passing through town – once again ¬– just long enough to leave skies cloudy and drop temperatures. This weather forecast is enough to make a person dizzy! Come the weekend, clear and warmer weather resumes.

Yes, believe-it-or-not, there is a very slight chance of rain on Sunday or Monday. Here we go again … mid to late next week a strong high-pressure ridge is likely to develop over California. No doubt we’ll have perfect weather but the contributing factors of offshore wind, rise in temperature and low-humidity will heighten fire conditions in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Beautiful “sunny California” comes with a price.

Please, Santa, “All I want for Christmas is rain.”

Sue Kilpatrick is a Crescenta Valley resident and  Official Skywarn Spotter for the  National Weather Service. Reach her at  suelkilpatrick@gmail.com.

  Sue Kilpatrick